Thursday, December 9, 2010

Housing prices soften as sales bump up

The average price of a single family detached property in the Edmonton area continued to soften in November. According to the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton, at $362,657, the average* SFD price was half a percent lower in November than it was in October. Compared to a year ago the price was down significantly by 2.5%. November condo prices also took one of the biggest drops this year with the average price down 2% to $229,603 month-over-month and just under 3% year-over-year. Average duplex/rowhouse prices of $318,605 went up over the previous month (6%) and previous year (10.6%).


Despite the softening of prices in specific categories, overall the market remained stable with the all-residential average price of $319,479 (up 0.65%) from October and up a third of a percent from last year. There were 1,120 residential sales on the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® in November as compared to 1,077 in October. Listings were down from 2,267 in October to 1,860 in November. This resulted in a drop in the available inventory from 7,689 to 6,982 residential units; still considered high for this market.

“Softening prices, a dip in interest rates, increasing sales nationally and excess local inventory all contributed to a month-over-month sales bump,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Housing affordability in Edmonton is lower than the national average and economic growth in Alberta is expected to exceed other parts of the country.”

The sales-to-listing ratio in Edmonton and area was 66% and the average days-on-market was down from 60 to 59 days. Taken together the two figures indicate that sellers must exercise patience as they wait for a buyer. They should be encouraged to learn that there was over $400 million worth of real estate sold through the local MLS® System in November.

“It seems that Edmonton is out of phase with the rest of the country and is lagging slightly in comparison to other major markets,” said Westergard. “All the indicators suggest that an increase in real estate sales is right around the corner. Your REALTOR® will continue to monitor the local market and provide appropriate advice for each specific property.”

Friday, November 5, 2010

Month-over-month price drop brings properties to 2009 housing price levels

Edmonton, November 2, 2010: Although the all-residential average price dropped 3% in October, average prices are almost exactly what they were a year ago. Single family dwellings were sold on average for $365,691 which is just $1,434 less (-0.39%) than October 2009. Condos sold in October for about $2,000 less (-0.9%) than a year earlier at an average price of $235,893.

“Stability is the key word for the Edmonton housing market,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Prices this fall are matching almost dollar for dollar with prices for the past two years. But I am pleased to report that the inventory dropped 10.6% in October, and as it returns to a more normal level, prices will start to move.”

The average* all residential price in October was $317,422 as compared to $327,235 in September. It was less than one percent lower than the October 2009 price of $320,184. Listing activity continued to slow with just 2,269 residential properties added in October. There were 1,077 residential sales for a sales-to-listing ratio of 44.5%. Total residential inventory was 7,689 properties at the end of October as compared to 8,602 the month prior. The average days-on-market went up to 60 days from 56 last month.

The all-residential median price rose from $306,500 in October 2009 to $308,000 last month. “This rise in the median price stretched the range of the lower end of the market,” said Westergard. “Yet REALTORS® still found 529 properties priced under $300,000 for buyers with smaller budgets or modest housing needs in October. There is still a home suitable for every buyer in this market.” There were 32 sales of residential properties priced at over $750,000 during the same month.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Bank of Canada keeps interest rate at 1%


Source: The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada reversed course on its monetary policy Tuesday, keeping its benchmark interest rate at 1% in the face of a weakening economy.

The bank had increased short-term interest rates three consecutive occasions since June, but said Tuesday that was enough as it scaled back growth projections for the economy.

And the bank’s bleak new outlook for growth -- about half a percentage point lower for this year and next than it projected in July -- likely means it will stay on the sidelines for some time, economists said.

The reduced expectations, combined with China raising interest rates to slow down its torrid economy, sent the loonie tumbling almost two cents US.

In an unusually detailed and dour communique accompanying the rate announcement, the central bank’s governing council said it now expects the slow recovery from recession to be so protracted that it won’t be until 2012 before the economy returns to full capacity, a full year later than previously thought.

“The economic outlook for Canada has changed,” the bank’s senior officials wrote.

“At this time of transition in the global recovery, with a weaker U.S. outlook, constraints beginning to moderate growth in emerging-market economies and domestic considerations that are expected to slow consumption and housing activity in Canada , any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.”

TD Bank chief economist Craig Alexander said markets had been expecting the benchmark interest rate to hold at 1%, but not the central bank’s negative statement.

“I think the market is surprised by the extent of revisions in economic growth and the very sombre tone,” he said.

“I don’t think the bank of Canada is going to pause for only one meeting. I think the most likely scenario now is the Bank of Canada is going to be on the sidelines for at least until next March.”

Bank governor Mark Carney will want to see how much quantitative easing the U.S. will undertake, and how the U.S. economy fares, before resuming its tightening cycle, Alexander said.

Some economists say it could even be longer, and Brian Bethune of IHS Global Insight said the policy reversal raises questions about whether Carney jumped the gun over the summer in becoming the only G7 central banker to start removing monetary stimulus.

He noted that long term rates were falling, reflecting the weak economy, while Carney was raising short-term interest rates.

“It was an odd cocktail of policy,” he said. “The problem with that is that encourages hot money flows into Canada and pushed up the Canadian dollar, and all that does is hurt small business.”

In the revised forecast, the bank said Tuesday it now believes Canada ’s economy will likely grow about 3% this year instead of the 3.5% it had predicted in July -- and that’s all due to a faster-than-expected start to the year.

Next year will be even worse, with moderate growth of 2.3%, six-tenths of a point lower than previously projected.

It’s not until 2012 that the bank sees the economy gathering steam, but at 2.6%, that’s still far below Canada ’s historic growth levels during expansionary periods.

More surprising was how far the bank’s senior officers set back the time frame for the economy to return to normal, or full-capacity -- to the end of 2012 from the previously thought end of 2011.

“This more modest growth profile reflects a more gradual global recovery and a more subdued profile for household spending,” they wrote.

The bank said with household debt so high, it expects Canadians will spend less on consumer goods and on homes, meaning the housing market is in for a protracted cooling-off period.

Given that Ottawa is phasing out fiscal stimulus in March and consumers don’t have the means to keep spending, the Canadian economy will need to depend on exports and business investments, two sectors that have been extremely weak over the past few years.

It warned that exports will be sensitive to currency movements, a reference to efforts by the U.S. to devalue their dollar and corresponding strength of the loonie.

For the rest of the world, the coming fight over currency exchange rates -- largely between China and the U.S. -- and unresolved global imbalances will result in a more “protracted and difficult recovery,” the bank said.

Currency manipulation has emerged as the most contentious issue at the upcoming G20 finance ministers meeting later this week and leaders summit in November, both in Korea, with the potential to split the group between advanced and emerging nations.

The U.S. recovery will be particularly weak, it noted, with the corresponding drag on Canadian exports south of the border.

Even growth rates in emerging economies are expected to ease, the bank wrote, as fiscal and monetary policies are tightened.

As for prices, the bank’s key focus, its best guess is that both total and underlying inflation won’t reach the bank’s 2% target until the end of 2012.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Bank of Canada to leave interest rates on hold

Economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank say they now expect the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates untouched until early next year.

In a research note, TD says that it believes that further interest rate hikes are off the table for now, and that, in particular, “a pause is by far the most likely outcome for the October 19th decision.”

TD gives three main reasons for its prediction: global conditions have become increasingly uncertain, and not a little gloomy; Canadian economic data has consistently disappointed, and suggests future subpar growth; and, communications from the Bank of Canada have been quite dovish lately.

“In the absence of a rate change, the Bank of Canada’s statement will be important, and should exude softness,” TD says. “Current economic conditions should be described in more negative terms, with global growth sputtering and recent Canadian growth disappointing expectations.”

TD expects the central bank to downgrade both its domestic and international forecasts, and predicts that the 2010 forecast will probably drop from 3.5% to about 3.0%. For 2011, the BoC has been forecasting a 2.9% gain, which TD expects to see downgraded, too.

“If it arrives around 2.5%, the collective downgrades will result in an output gap that remains far from closed at the end of 2011, and instead the BoC may project a return to full capacity around mid-2012, or even later,” TD says. “Given the substantial shift, we highlight the risk that the inflation forecast might be pitched downwards, too, with a later return to a sustainable 2% level.”

“Our medium term outlook remains for a Bank of Canada on hold through the end of the year and into early 2011. We then imagine a slow but steady pace of tightening that results in a 2.00% overnight rate at the end of 2011, and a 3.00% rate at the end of 2012,” TD concludes.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Lack of consumer activity holds housing market steady

Housing prices in the Edmonton area remained stable as we enter the final quarter of the year. Single family dwelling prices in September mirrored prices in August and condo prices rose slightly after four months of decline. Both listings and sales declined in September as compared to a month ago.


“The market seems to be resting,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “After the turmoil of the past couple of years and the rush to buy in the early part of the year, it seems that consumers are just sitting back and waiting to see what comes up next.” There are still over 8,600 residential properties in the local inventory and buyers have lots of choice.

The average* price of a single family property was up $472 and sold for $370,653 in September. Condominiums, which have dropped in price for four consecutive months, rallied and sold on average for $238,822 last month. The slightly less than 1% price increase did not reverse drops from a high of $252,728 in April. The duplex/rowhouse average price was down 11% to $313,462 but tends to vary widely from month to month. The residential sale price (which includes all types of residential property) was $326,499; down less than a quarter of a percent from last month.

Residential sales in September were down from the previous month at 1,187 as were listings at 2,668. This sales-to-listing ratio was 47% and the average days-on-market was unchanged at 57 days.

“The third quarter activity was identical to the first quarter this year,” said Westergard. “Typically we see sales dropping from Q2 to Q3 but remaining higher than Q1. This reflects a very active market in the first part of the year which was spurred on by financial incentives and the threat of increasing interest rates.”

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Only two more rate hikes before Bank of Canada stands pat

The Bank of Canada likely only has two more solo rate hikes before it will have to wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, says National Bank Financial.

In a research note published Monday, NBF notes that the Bank of Canada has just raised its key rate a third time while the central banks of most of the other advanced countries look on from the sidelines.

“Given the magnitude of the shock suffered south of the border, disinflationary pressures there have been much greater than in Canada, which suggests that the Fed could sit tight for another year,” it says.

The Fed is scheduled to release its latest decision on interest rates Tuesday afternoon.

In Canada, the rate is still certainly very stimulative, NBF says, however, it believes that the Bank of Canada “is unlikely to keep going it alone for much longer.”

“Indeed, overly divergent monetary policies between Canada and the United States could drive the loonie upward and further deteriorate a trade balance already in bad shape,” NBF says. As a result, it predicts that the Bank of Canada will only deliver two more 25 basis point rate hikes over the next year.

“With the economy slowing down to the level of potential GDP growth for 2011 and with the output gap closed, the Bank of Canada should then mark time before raising rates further until the U.S. economy gets up and running again,” NBF says.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Singapore - SkyPark at Marina Bay Sands

You love it for its casinos, its beaches and, most of all, its Slings. But you’re about to get another immensely compelling reason.

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to go to that great swimming pool in the sky...

Introducing the SkyPark at Marina Bay Sands, home to a jaw-dropping rooftop pool 57 stories above Singapore, open now.


It’s a massive, watery park the size of a soccer field spread out across the tops of three skyscrapers—like a rooftop aircraft carrier entirely devoted to swimming. Gather your sun-baked Singapore cohorts, find your way to the daybeds on the private end of the SkyPark, and you’ll see it: an infinity pool floating far above downtown.

If you feel like a closer look, ditch the snow-white daybed for a snow-white pool float, or take an exploratory backstroke down the length of the pool—nearly 500 feet stretching along the edge of it all. (You’ve always lived life on the edge.)


 If you fancy a dip in this pool, you'll need a head for heights - it's 55 storeys up.

But swimming to the edge won't be quite as risky as it looks. While the water in the infinity pool seems to end in a sheer drop, it actually spills into a catchment area where it is pumped back into the main pool. At three times the length of an Olympic pool and 650ft up, it is the largest outdoor pool in the world at that height.

It features in the impressive, boat-shaped 'SkyPark' perched atop the three towers that make up the world's most expensive hotel, the £4billion Marina Bay Sands development in Singapore.


I’d stay away from the observation deck in the name of tourist dodging, but when you’re ready for dry land, you’ll have a whole Vegas-style resort/casino waiting beneath you. That means a casino floor, two theaters and no fewer than 16 restaurants that don’t require changing out of your bathing suit.


The hotel, which has 2,560 rooms costing from £350 a night, was officially opened yesterday with a concert by Diana Ross.

The Emirates Palace Hotel in Abu Dhabi, estimated to have cost £2billion when it opened in 2004, was previously the world's most expensive hotel.

But with its indoor canal, opulent art, casino, outdoor plaza, convention centre, theatre, crystal pavilion and museum shaped like a lotus flower, the Marina Bay Sands has taken its crown.

The infinity pool on the roof is in the 'SkyPark' which spans the three towers of the hotel. The platform itself is longer than the Eiffel tower laid down and is one of the largest of its kind in the world.

Infinity pools give the effect that the water extends to the horizon. In reality, the water spills over the edge into a catchment below, and is then pumped back into the pool. The pools have two circulation systems. The first functions like that of a regular pool, filtering and heating the water in the main pool. The second filters the water in the catch basin and returns it to the upper pool.



The Marina Sands resort was designed by architect Moshe Safdie who based it on a deck of cards.

Inside shoppers can ride along an indoor canal in Sampan boats styled on traditional Chinese vessels from the 17th century.

The owners have also commissioned five well-known artists to create works of art to 'integrate' with the buildings. Among these is a 40m-long Antony Gormley sculpture made from 16,100 steel rods. The whole thing weighs 14.8 tons and it took 60 people to assemble it in the hotel.

Artist Chongbin Zheng created Rising Forest which is 83 three metre high pots with trees in them. The pots were so big the artist had to build a customised kiln the size of a small building to make them in.

The world's most expensive hotel was given a launch party befitting it. Singing legend Diana Ross performed for 2,500 VIPs in the resort's Grand Ballroom and pop singer Kelly Rowland headlined an outdoor concert.

The opening celebrations also featured a death-defying relay. Seven teams of three participants each scaled the three towers before sprinting across the 340-metre long Sands SkyPark, where the infinity pool is located, to the finish line.

The resort will employ 10,000 people directly and generate up to £48m each year. Entrance to the casino alone is nearly £50 a day - but an average of 25,000 people have visited the casino daily since its initial phased opening two months ago.

Thomas Arasi, president and chief executive officer of the resort, said he expects to attract an astonishing 70,000 visitors a day once it is fully open.

It was due to open in 2009, but was delayed thanks to labour and material shortages, and funding problems due to the global financial crisis.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Central bank raises interest rate and could continue to raise rates this year

The Bank of Canada hiked rates another 25 basis points on Wednesday morning, and left some economists with the impression that it may yet continue to hike.

In the policy statement accompanying Wednesday’s rate decision, the bank indicated that further rate hikes will be “carefully considered in light of the unusual uncertainty surrounding the outlook.” That outlook has dimmed somewhat of late, leading some economists to expect that the central bank will be pausing its hikes. Indeed, while Wednesday’s rate rise was widely expected, it wasn’t viewed as a slam dunk.

Ahead of Wednesday’s announcement, a common view was that the bank would suggest that the rate hikes may cease while the recovery falters. But the bank didn’t seem to tack very far in that direction.

HSBC Securities (Canada) Inc. says that the statement’s tone “is considerably firmer than may have been anticipated”, and that it “to some extent challenges the market view” that Wednesday’s meeting would mark the a pause in the rate hiking cycle. HSBC is one of the few market observers that is expecting the bank to continue its rate hikes this year.

TD Economics says that it is “evident from the communiqué that the bank is in highly reactive mode. In the absence of clarity surrounding the outlook, there is no commitment or hint to either a pause in the tightening cycle or the continued gradual nudging of interest rate higher. Key economic and financial indicators over the next six weeks will ultimately decide the next decision on October 20.”

Economists at RBC Capital Markets say that “lingering worries about the U.S. economic outlook will likely be a contributing factor to the Bank of Canada stepping to the sidelines.” While domestic conditions remain very expansionary, the weaker external environment will hamper Canada’s recovery, it suggests. “Against this backdrop, we expect the bank to hold the policy rate at 1% to assess the effect of the 75 bps of tightening undertaken to date on the domestic economy,” it says. However, it also suggests that the pause will be a brief one.

TD says that the odds favour the Bank of Canada pausing for some time. It currently does not anticipate another tightening before March of next year. TD says that the bank’s view on the economy in the July Monetary Policy Report is far too rosy, and the fact that in today’s statement it suggests that its view has dimmed, but only slightly, “raises the possibility that the bank remains too optimistic.”

In the opinion of TD Economics, the Canadian economy will be hard pressed to expand by 2% next year, it says, noting that it faces both external and domestic headwinds. While the bank anticipated in July that the economy will be back to full capacity by the end of 2011, TD Economics anticipates that it will take at least two quarters longer to reach that goal.

“The implication is that soft economic numbers are anticipated in the coming months. Indeed, we expect that the unemployment rate could edge higher in the near term and core inflation is expected to dip towards 1.4% in early 2011. This outlook suggests that a pause in the tightening cycle could easily occur,” TD concludes.

However, BMO Capital Markets observes that the Bank of Canada clearly retains its tightening bias, and it observes that it “seems generally unfazed by the recent cooling in the Canadian economy.”

“While we had been expecting the Bank to now move to the sidelines for a spell, it appears that it will take a deeper slowdown in domestic spending (as we suspect) than what we have seen so far to prompt them to stop raising rates,” it concludes.

National Bank Financial agrees that the overall tone of the report does not suggest that the bank is getting ready to pause in its rate increases. It says its own assessment about the downside risks to global recovery in the second half of 2010 is gloomier than the Bank of Canada seems to hold.

“We feel that a tactical pause this month would have been easily justified given the loss of economic momentum already apparent in the U.S. and starting to show in the Euro-zone. Unless more clouds gather on the horizon over the coming weeks, our forecast calling for a 1.5% overnight rate with a Canadian dollar at par against the USD by Q1 2011 will occur faster than what we had envisaged,” it says.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

August housing market quietens

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton reports that the average price of single family property in the Edmonton area has softened with a small drop for the second consecutive month. Prices were plateaued at just over $388,000 from March to June. Condominium prices have dropped steadily from their high point of $253,000 in April and are down another 2.99%.

“Despite the two month drop, single family homes are still priced a bit higher than they were at the same time last year,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “There may be bargains in the condominium market as prices are about $10,000 less than a year ago, on average.”

The average* priced single family property was down 1.96% and sold for $372,253 in August. Condominiums dropped in price for the fourth consecutive month and sold on average for $232,230 in August. The duplex/rowhouse average price was up 16.7% to $352,662 but based on just 56 sales so the average may be skewed by the selection of properties sold. The average residential sale price (which includes all types of residential property) was $325,588; down just 1.3% from last month.

Residential sales in August were down from the previous month at 1,195 as were listings at 2,700. This sales-to-listing ratio of 44% increased the available inventory to 8,822 units at the end of the month. Sales were slower as the average days-on-market was up six at 57 days.

“Although the market has quieted this summer the inventory is being constantly refreshed,” said Westergard. “Our 3,200 REALTORS® are listing 50 to 100 properties every day and wide choice is available in all areas. We don’t expect a big push this fall but homes are selling although the sales cycle is longer than many sellers would like.”

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Mortgage rates and how they are defined

Variable rate mortgages usually work better than to fix your mortgage in a declining interest rate market.

As we have seen benchmark interest rates increased in 2 out of 2 of the last Bank of Canada's meetings, the tide has now turned and it may be advantageous to now lock in your mortgage.

A 5 year fixed rate mortgage can be had at a shade or two under 4 points. Interestingly enough, fixed rate packages have been recently on the decline as variable rate mortgages have been on the incline this year.

The variable rate is set and calculated against the banks prime lending rate. Bank prime lending rates are directly affected by the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate. It is this "overnight" rate that is used as the interest rate that banks charge eachother to cover their short term daily transactions. As the Bank of Canada raises its key interest rate, this in effect increases the banks cost of borrowing through short term daily transactions which in turn increases their prime lending rate (as it is these "short term daily transactions" that the banks borrow money for variable rate product). Then of course the cost of borrowing rises for consumers who take on variable rate products.

Essentially fixed rate mortgages are affected by the yielding rate on bonds. The banks rely on the bond market to raise money for these kinds of mortgage applications. So essentially because bond yields are at lower lows, the base rate for fixed rate mortgages are currently sitting at near all time lows.

Banks are in business to make profit. Their commodity is money. They purchase money at rates that are cheaper than they can loan the money out at. Essentially, they pay their depositors low rates of interest on their bank accounts, term deposits, and GIC's and lend out at higher interest rates through mortgages.

A government of Canada bond represents a risk free investment to the banks. When the banks decide to load money for a mortgage, they are taking on risk with their capital (our deposits) and covering expenses to set up and service the loan. As prudent business practice, they will set their mortgage rates high enough above the equivalent bond yield to supplement their business practices for their costs and provide them with a profit margin for the added risk they take on or services that they provide.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Edmonton housing market marked by high inventory

While the summer temperatures rose in July, housing prices cooled and prices for all types of residential properties dipped slightly according to figures released by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. Single family dwelling prices slid 3.1% while condo prices were down 1.5% and duplex/rowhouse prices dipped just less than one percent. The all-residential average price dropped just 1.7%.

"The number of homes in the inventory is giving buyers' choice," said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. "As a result many buyers are taking their time and prices are beginning to soften slightly. At the same time, some sellers who have been standing firm have been pushed to discount their initial list price." Less than half of the active listings over 30 days have had a price reduction. However, 93% of July sales sold below the list with about 40% having already taken a price reduction.

Single family homes sold on average* for $378,979 in July; a reduction from the previous month but up 1.5% from what they sold for last year. Condominiums dropped in price slightly in July moving down about 1.5% from June. The average condo price was $240,371 in July. The duplex/rowhouse average price was also down 0.9% to $304,032 and the average residential price (including all types of residential property) was down 1.7% since last month at $329,734.

The large inventory of 8,892 residential properties available at month end dampened both listings and sales. New listings were off 15% from last month and 3.3% from last July. Sales dropped from 1,741 in June to 1,294 in July (a 15% drop). The sales-to-listing ratio was 43.8% (down from June). As you might expect, sales were also slower and the average days-on-market was up 4 at 51 days. "A well presented property with the right price might still attract multiple offers," said Westergard. "Most buyers are receiving the expert advice of their REALTOR® and getting access to day-to-day changes to numbers and sales results. It is critical that sellers remain in contact with their REALTOR® and be prepared to modify the price as the market moves." Residential inventory is expected to follow a seasonal trend and fall through the latter part of the year leading to a more balanced market and price stability.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Laneway housing takes form in affluent Edmonton neighbourhood

It was just recently that while viewing properties in Garneau very near the U of A where it's littered with income producing property, my client and I during a showing found ourselves looking back on to "laneway housing". Being that the street/neighborhood is zoned RF3 (RF3 allows for semi-detached housing with up to four units per building), this homeowner decided to take advantage by creating a residence above his/her garage. This infill (newly built home in an older neighborhood) is a prime example of the possibilities and/or potential uses of the current zoned RF3 application in the neighborhod. Although this residence is newly built, this picture keys in on expanding your horizons related to your current residence or acquiring a piece of real estate and creating value through its tangible land use zone application.


Vancouver housing market remains some of the most expensive real estate in Canada. With the lack of ability to build across far and wide, like what we have in Edmonton with our vast lands, Vancouver must build upwards rather than onwards. It is a bit of a problem as this inflates land values relating to minute purchasing power for homeowners (that is of course if you want to live the Vancouver lifestyle moreover than the suburbs like Burnaby, Coquitlam, Richmond, Surrey, etc.). The city has passed bylaw allowing for the creation and development of laneway housing. In contrast to the condo lifestyle, it provides for a unique and affordable style of living in an area where you might not ought to have before been capable of residing within.


Sunday, July 25, 2010

Bank of Canada raises key interest rate to 0.75%

Central bank issues gloomy outlook

Source: The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada has hiked its trendsetting interest rate a quarter point to 0.75%, while issuing a more gloomy outlook for the economy and raising questions about where rates are headed next.

The second rate increase in as many months had been widely predicted by economists and markets, given Canada’s strong first quarter advance and recent job creation record.

The move will likely have an impact on variable mortgages as the big commercial banks usually adjust their prime rates shortly after the Bank of Canada adjusts its key lending rates.

The central bank’s move will raise some eye-brows among so-called bearish economists who had urged governor Mark Carney to keep interest rates steady if he believed the recovery was slowing.

They argued that raising rates at this time will onlhy weaken growth by discouraging consumer spending and business investment, and adding upward pressure on the loonie to the detriment of manufacturers and exports.

In a statement accompanying the announcement, the central bank’s governing council made clear that they did believe the economy’s growth was slowing.

The council said growth will be two-tenths of a point lower both this year and next -- at 3.5% and 2.9% respectively -- than it had thought in April.

And it said rather than returning to full capacity in the spring of 2011, the economy won’t be up to speed until the end of 2011, two full quarters later.

“This revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption in Canada,” the bank said.

It also noted that housing activity has declined “markedly,” and that while employment growth has resumed, “business investment appears to be held back by global uncertainties and has yet to recover from its sharp contraction during the recession.”

The bank said economic activity in Canada was still being led by government and consumer spending.

As for the global economy, the bank said there was still much to be concerned about.

The recovery was proceeding but was not yet self-sustaining. The debt overhang on governments, banks and households, it said, will temper the pace of growth.

And while the policy response has reduced some of the risk stemming from Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, that too will have an impact on the pace of global growth going forward. Meanwhile, the United States is seeing private demand pick up, but in an uneven way, it said.

Given the “considerable uncertainty ... any further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments,” the bank added.

The next scheduled interest rate announcement is Sept. 8.

The central bank’s governing council did not expand on its reasoning for the rate hike other than to say it is consistent with achieving its 2% inflation target, and noting that at 0.75%, it considers monetary policy to be considerably stimulative.

It said inflation, the key responsibility for the central bank, is broadly in line with what it had expected and is expected to remain near the 2% target throughout the next two and a half years.

Although growth will be slower in the next two years, the bank did lift its projection for 2012 to 2.2% from the 1.9% it had earlier forecast.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Central bank expected to raise its key lending rate by a quarter percentage point Tuesday to 0.75%

The week ahead: Canadian investors look to Bank of Canada interest rate decision

Source: The Canadian Press

Canadian investors will look to the central bank’s interest rate decision for guidance this week, while U.S. markets are hoping earnings reports from a slew of major companies will help offset some abysmal economic data.

The Bank of Canada is expected to raise its key lending rate by a quarter percentage point Tuesday to 0.75%, another indication that Canada’s economic recovery has so far been stronger and faster than in the United States.

An interest rate hike by the Canadian central bank in a move to fight inflationary pressures in the economy could put some pressure on stock markets as they price in “greater odds of follow-up moves through October,” noted Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets.

News earlier this month that the Canadian economy created a whopping 93,200 new jobs in June, taking the country’s unemployment rate below 8% for the first time since the depths of the recession, “more or less put the lid on the question” of whether the central bank would hike interest rates, said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“I wouldn’t say things are back to normal but they’re moving rapidly in that direction, at least in Canada,” Porter said.

“In that kind of environment, there is very little justification for extraordinarily low interest rates such as we still have in this country.”

Canadian businesses also helped pave the way for an interest rate hike in a key quarterly survey last week, indicating they were generally upbeat about the outlook for business activity over the coming year.

Half the firms surveyed by the Bank of Canada said they planned to add workers over the next 12 months, compared to only 10% that planned to cut their workforce.

Porter said he expects the central bank’s lending rate to reach 2.5% by the end of 2011. However, he added that he expects the central bank to continue using “very cautious language” for the time being.

While an interest rate hike and the Bank of Canada’s assessment of the economic recovery will impact investors, fallout from a slew of weak economic data in the U.S. will also weigh on markets this week.

Colin Cieszynski, market analyst at CMC Markets Canada, said Canada with its strong economy and low borrowing costs “is just about the only place where people are talking about raising interest rates.”

“Certainly in the U.S. they’re not, and in fact the Fed even said that if things slow down too much they’ll bring back more emergency measures.”

Major stock markets in Toronto and New York ended last week in the red following a much weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading out of the U.S. on Friday, some uninspiring manufacturing data, soft retail sales numbers, a lower economic growth forecast from the Fed and a miserable jobs report for June.

Housing data out of the States this week could continue to pressure markets. Housing starts, due out on Tuesday, are projected to drop 5% for June, while existing home sales, which will be reported Thursday, are expected to fall 10% for the same month.

“I think we’re back to where we were about a year ago in terms of expectations for the recovery,” Porter said.

“Economists, analysts, the markets all have come to grips with the reality that we are coming back down to earth.”

However, the impact of weakening housing data could be mitigated if major companies slated to report earnings next week are able to impress, Cieszynski said.

“Right now you’ve still got a bit of fear out there, but if you do start to see large numbers of positive surprises pile up again, it should help to stabilize the markets,” he said.

Monday, July 5, 2010

Edmonton housing market marked by high inventory

REALTORS® report normal client activity in the Edmonton real estate market with listings, showings and sales. The residential inventory is approaching record levels set in 2007 but prices held steady in the second quarter with the expectation that they will soften as usual through the fall and early winter.

“There was less external pressure on the market from incentives or rate changes last month and as a result the market seems to be operating in a normal controlled manner,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “It has been quiet on the news front but very busy in REALTORS® offices as they list client’s properties for sale, book showings for buyers and attend open houses. This has not resulted in immediate sales, however, and, in anticipation that this slowdown will continue through the year, we have reduced our 2010 sales forecast by 2,000 units from 21,000 to just 19,000.”

The slight rise in prices for single family residences in the Edmonton area in May continued in June. SFD prices are up to $391,497 – an increase of half a percent. In the first half of the year average prices are up over 7.5% and are tracking higher than 2009. Condominium prices peaked in April and then flattened out to match the prices reported in 2009. In June the average condo sold for $242,644 – down 2.4% month-over-month. Duplex and rowhouse prices of $306,905 were down 4.6% from last month. Overall, the average residential price was down $4,795 in a month. As usual prices are expected to soften in the second half of the year as sales activity slows. “With the increased choices that buyers have in the marketplace right now it is that much more imperative that sellers consult with their REALTOR® to make sure their property is priced to attract an offer,” said Westergard.

There were 9,406 residential properties in inventory at the end of June as a result of 3,473 new residential listings and sales of 1,539 properties. The sales-to-listing ratio was 44%. The average days-on-market was up at 47 days. The record inventory levels were set in September 2007 at 9,913 residential properties available through the Edmonton MLS® System.

“External influences pulled sales activity into the first four months of the year which reduced the demand in May and June. Overall there were 680 less residential sales in the first half of the year as compared to 2009,” said Westergard. “Consumers still seem interested in getting into the housing market or moving up but seem to be resting after a confusing period of uncertainty and change in the conditions that surround a property purchase.” He emphasised that despite seasonal changes the local market is stabilizing and operating in a normal manner. “The frenetic days of the past few years look to be behind us now and it appears that the more calm, cool and collected market that we are used to in Edmonton is on the horizon”.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Mobile MLS Search For I Phone Available!

Want to check out MLS on your iPhone? Now you can! With GPS integration with Google Maps, this new tool will automatically locate the listings nearest your current location. From there, you can get full MLS info for each of the properities nearby. Want information on another area? Simply type in a location, and you will get all the listings that are close.

This is an amazing new service for all of us mobile junkies out there... check it out at www.Edmonton-HomesForSale.com/m and let me know if you have any questions!
Unfortunately, this service is not currently available for Blackberry users, but I will keep you posted...



Here is a quick list of what you can do in this application

  • Automatically locate yourself via GPS and see all available listings for sale in up to 1km radius around you
  • Have the application "follow" you by updating your position and nearby listings as you walk or drive
  • Drag the map to pan around and see the nearby listings automatically searched for you
  • Manually override your current location by entering the address of your choice
  • Login into your Virtual Office Website (VOW) account to see and do more
  • See full details of each individual listing, including all photos
  • Email listings to family and friends
  • Inquire about the listing with the agent/team/broker
  • "Star" the listing for later review through the Virtual Office Website (VOW) account
  • Sign up for a Virtual Office Website (VOW) account
  • Make a phone call and/or send a SMS message directly from the contact forms

Monday, June 7, 2010

REALTORS® face relaxed housing market with stable pricing

The housing market was relaxed in May with slightly lower sales than last year and prices generally stable. Despite the sales drop, the current sales figures compare favourably with levels set in 2008.

“Financial incentives, changes to mortgage qualifying rules and the threat of increasing mortgage rates caused the local market to peak a little earlier this year,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Many buyers exercised their options in April leaving the customer base a little leaner in May.”

Single family residences in the Edmonton area rose in price by less than one percent and sold on average* for $390,583 in May. Condominium prices dipped just two percent to an average of $248,526. Duplex and rowhouse prices of $320,204 were down 2.3% from last month. Overall, the average residential price was up a quarter of a percent to $340,192.

There were 3,670 residential listings in May with residential sales of 1,682 properties resulting in a sales-to-listing ratio of 46%. The average time to sell a home was 44 days (the same as April) and inventory at month end was 8,780 residential units (as compared to 8,056 in April). At current sales levels the inventory will last for over five months.

“Buyers, sellers and REALTORS® can all relax and enter a sales transaction without pressure,” said Westergard. “That does not mean that you can delay making or accepting an attractive offer because 50-60 homes sell each day and you would hate to see your dream home snapped up by someone just a little more eager to live there.” He emphasized that the REALTOR® can be a calming influence in a sale but can also be relied upon to provide expert advice and coaching