Monthly Statistical Update: February

It was 2009 all over again if the housing figures released by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton are any indication. Prices for all categories of residential property sold in February mirrored prices in the same month in 2009 after showing pricing gains from January this year.

Single family detached properties sold for $359,934 on average* in February; up 1% from January. The February price was down 3.1% from a year ago but close to the $349,810 price in February 2009. Condo prices followed the same pattern. At $230,911 on average, condos were up 4.5% from a month ago but down 0.65% year over year. In February 2009, condos sold for $229,685. The average price for a duplex/rowhouse in February was $303,440; up 2% from January but down 5.6% from a year ago. In 2009, the February price for this category was $288,379.

"Sales and prices in early 2010 were pushed up by the impending mortgage rate increases and qualification changes," explained REALTORS® Association of Edmonton President Chris Mooney. "Now that the market is stable, price levels have returned to the 2009 levels. However, the price increases for all housing types from January indicate the slow upward movement that local REALTORS® anticipated."

The all-residential average price (including single family, condo, duplex, townhouse, mobile home and other residential housing types) was up three quarters of a percent from January but down 1.8% from a year ago. However, at $312,840 it matched the February 2009 price at $310,488.

REALTORS® listed 2,631 residential properties in February and sold a total of 1,044 properties. Current residential inventory is 6,389 up 13.4% from last month. The sales-to-listing ratio in February was 39% with days on market down from 67 to 58 days. "With the recent announcement by the Bank of Canada that interest rates are not being raised, consumers can have confidence in the strength of the local real estate market," said Mooney. "Call a REALTOR® to begin your house search."

Monthly Statistical Update : January

According to the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton the average price of housing increased slightly in January as compared to the previous month. The all-residential average price rose three quarters of a percent to $310,766; up from $308,497 in December. Single family homes rose a quarter of a percent while condo prices dropped just over one percent during the month.

Residential sales of 735 were on par with December sales (834) and sales in January 2009 (775) but off 21% from the same month last year (931). Residential listing activity rose from 1,102 units in December 2010 to 2,142 units in January. Inventory of homes on the Multiple Listing Service® System decreased from 5,721 at year end to 5,633 as of January 31.

“Traditionally the market dips in December but inventory starts to build in January to supply the spring market,” explained REALTORS® Association of Edmonton President Chris Mooney. “Prices are up slightly but the cold weather seems to have kept buyers and sellers out of the market. We expect sales activity to increase along with spring temperatures and continue all through the first two quarters.”

The average* price of single family dwellings in January was $356,276 with a median price of $349,900. Condo average price was $220,993 with a median of $214,000. Duplex and rowhouse prices also dropped on average from $315,163 to $297,587 a 5.6% drop. All prices reflected sales across the entire Edmonton region including surrounding communities and counties.

Mooney suggested that changes to mortgage qualification rules would not have the same effect that last year’s rule changes had. “In 2010, people reacted early to the changes and completed their home purchases earlier than usual. The reduction from 35 to 30 year amortization limits will come into effect on March 18 but we do not expect it to affect a large number of purchasers,” said Mooney.

The average days-on-market in January was 67 days up from 53 last year. The residential sales-to-listing ratio was a low 34% in January and total MLS® System sales were almost $253 million.

Federal Government Announces Changes To Mortgage Law

Effective March 18, 2011 the new rules for obtaining a mortgage will differ from current mortgage law.  There will be a limit to a maximum of 30 year amortization period rather than the current 35 years. The amortization period is the life of the mortgage and should not be confused with the term, which can range anywhere from a few months to more typically 5 years. That being said the new changes will remove qualified individuals from the market place or put a mark in the purchasing power of many buyers. As the chart below describes the increase in monthly payments, this in effect raises your debt service ratio, which banks analyze to determine your suitability for borrowing, then which that in turn decreases your maximum allowable mortgage amount.

Furthermore, changes are also being made to the maximum allowable re-finance amount. Borrowers can re-finance and increase the amount of their loan against their home. The changes announced on January 17th will limit the amount of re-finance available from 90 percent to 85 percent of the value of the home.

As an illustration, for a home appraised (your bank will send an appraiser out when you look to re-finance) at $200,000, re-financing at 90 percent would allow the home-owner to withdraw $180,000 worth of equity. With the new change being an 85 percent maximum re-finance, a home-owner may access $170,000 worth of equity in place.

Last of the changes the government made is that mortgage insurance to banks will no longer be provided for home equity line of credits - HELOC's. Tax payers will now be relieved of this duty and it is up to the financial institution carrying the HELOC to absorbed the financial loss incurred on home-owners who default on the HELOC. Previously mortgage insurance in Canada covered the default payment on these borrowing models, now the insurance is in place to only cover any losses incurred by the lack of equity in a homes principal mortgage amount. 

The adjustments for the maximum amortization and maximum re-finance amount will come in effect March 18, 2011. The withdrawal of government insurance backing HELOC's will come in effect April 18, 2011.

Realtors Association Of Edmonton Monthly Averages: December Year End

The average price for a single family detached home in December was $355,270, down about $10,000 as compared to the price in November. The average condo price dropped less than $6,000 to $223,454. The marginal price reduction (down 2.7%) continued a SFD slide that started in June when average prices were over $390,000. Condo prices peaked at $252,700 in April and have continued a relentless march downward since then.


The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton released month end and year end results for sales through the local Multiple Listing Service® and includes all residential sales for the City of Edmonton and surrounding communities and counties.

As compared to December 2009, single family prices were down 2.7% and condo prices were off by 7.2%. The average price of all residential property sales in December was down 2.0% as compared to a year ago.

“Homebuyers are watching housing prices slide and may attempt to catch the market at the bottom by delaying their purchase but the low point is only evident about three months after it is reached,” said Larry Westergard, President of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Home sales are still happening each day and by waiting, the wary buyer may miss the ideal home.”
He urged home sellers to also watch the pricing trends to ensure that their home was appropriately priced relative to the market. “Market activity will pick up again in the spring as usual according to trends,” said Westergard, “Keep your REALTOR® on speed-dial to ensure you have access to the latest market figures.”

Residential sales activity in December was off 34% (784 sales) as compared to November but fewer homes (1,110) were listed and that reduced the available inventory by 18% to 5,721 residential properties on the Edmonton MLS® System. The average days on market rose from 59 to 66 days.

Year-over-year, the all-residential price (includes all single family, condominiums, duplex/rowhouses and mobile homes sold through the year in the Edmonton area) rose 2.6% from 2009. The SFD price rose 3.52% and condos rose 1.89% for the year. REALTORS® sold a total of 18,293 properties of all types in 2010 which was down 14% from 2009. They listed 40,597 properties which is up 7.6% from the previous year. Total Edmonton MLS® System sales were valued at $6.12 billion: a 12% drop from 2009.

Housing prices soften as sales bump up

The average price of a single family detached property in the Edmonton area continued to soften in November. According to the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton, at $362,657, the average* SFD price was half a percent lower in November than it was in October. Compared to a year ago the price was down significantly by 2.5%. November condo prices also took one of the biggest drops this year with the average price down 2% to $229,603 month-over-month and just under 3% year-over-year. Average duplex/rowhouse prices of $318,605 went up over the previous month (6%) and previous year (10.6%).


Despite the softening of prices in specific categories, overall the market remained stable with the all-residential average price of $319,479 (up 0.65%) from October and up a third of a percent from last year. There were 1,120 residential sales on the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® in November as compared to 1,077 in October. Listings were down from 2,267 in October to 1,860 in November. This resulted in a drop in the available inventory from 7,689 to 6,982 residential units; still considered high for this market.

“Softening prices, a dip in interest rates, increasing sales nationally and excess local inventory all contributed to a month-over-month sales bump,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Housing affordability in Edmonton is lower than the national average and economic growth in Alberta is expected to exceed other parts of the country.”

The sales-to-listing ratio in Edmonton and area was 66% and the average days-on-market was down from 60 to 59 days. Taken together the two figures indicate that sellers must exercise patience as they wait for a buyer. They should be encouraged to learn that there was over $400 million worth of real estate sold through the local MLS® System in November.

“It seems that Edmonton is out of phase with the rest of the country and is lagging slightly in comparison to other major markets,” said Westergard. “All the indicators suggest that an increase in real estate sales is right around the corner. Your REALTOR® will continue to monitor the local market and provide appropriate advice for each specific property.”

Month-over-month price drop brings properties to 2009 housing price levels

Edmonton, November 2, 2010: Although the all-residential average price dropped 3% in October, average prices are almost exactly what they were a year ago. Single family dwellings were sold on average for $365,691 which is just $1,434 less (-0.39%) than October 2009. Condos sold in October for about $2,000 less (-0.9%) than a year earlier at an average price of $235,893.

“Stability is the key word for the Edmonton housing market,” said Larry Westergard, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Prices this fall are matching almost dollar for dollar with prices for the past two years. But I am pleased to report that the inventory dropped 10.6% in October, and as it returns to a more normal level, prices will start to move.”

The average* all residential price in October was $317,422 as compared to $327,235 in September. It was less than one percent lower than the October 2009 price of $320,184. Listing activity continued to slow with just 2,269 residential properties added in October. There were 1,077 residential sales for a sales-to-listing ratio of 44.5%. Total residential inventory was 7,689 properties at the end of October as compared to 8,602 the month prior. The average days-on-market went up to 60 days from 56 last month.

The all-residential median price rose from $306,500 in October 2009 to $308,000 last month. “This rise in the median price stretched the range of the lower end of the market,” said Westergard. “Yet REALTORS® still found 529 properties priced under $300,000 for buyers with smaller budgets or modest housing needs in October. There is still a home suitable for every buyer in this market.” There were 32 sales of residential properties priced at over $750,000 during the same month.

Bank of Canada keeps interest rate at 1%

Source: The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada reversed course on its monetary policy Tuesday, keeping its benchmark interest rate at 1% in the face of a weakening economy.

The bank had increased short-term interest rates three consecutive occasions since June, but said Tuesday that was enough as it scaled back growth projections for the economy.

And the bank’s bleak new outlook for growth -- about half a percentage point lower for this year and next than it projected in July -- likely means it will stay on the sidelines for some time, economists said.

The reduced expectations, combined with China raising interest rates to slow down its torrid economy, sent the loonie tumbling almost two cents US.

In an unusually detailed and dour communique accompanying the rate announcement, the central bank’s governing council said it now expects the slow recovery from recession to be so protracted that it won’t be until 2012 before the economy returns to full capacity, a full year later than previously thought.

“The economic outlook for Canada has changed,” the bank’s senior officials wrote.

“At this time of transition in the global recovery, with a weaker U.S. outlook, constraints beginning to moderate growth in emerging-market economies and domestic considerations that are expected to slow consumption and housing activity in Canada , any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.”

TD Bank chief economist Craig Alexander said markets had been expecting the benchmark interest rate to hold at 1%, but not the central bank’s negative statement.

“I think the market is surprised by the extent of revisions in economic growth and the very sombre tone,” he said.

“I don’t think the bank of Canada is going to pause for only one meeting. I think the most likely scenario now is the Bank of Canada is going to be on the sidelines for at least until next March.”

Bank governor Mark Carney will want to see how much quantitative easing the U.S. will undertake, and how the U.S. economy fares, before resuming its tightening cycle, Alexander said.

Some economists say it could even be longer, and Brian Bethune of IHS Global Insight said the policy reversal raises questions about whether Carney jumped the gun over the summer in becoming the only G7 central banker to start removing monetary stimulus.

He noted that long term rates were falling, reflecting the weak economy, while Carney was raising short-term interest rates.

“It was an odd cocktail of policy,” he said. “The problem with that is that encourages hot money flows into Canada and pushed up the Canadian dollar, and all that does is hurt small business.”

In the revised forecast, the bank said Tuesday it now believes Canada ’s economy will likely grow about 3% this year instead of the 3.5% it had predicted in July -- and that’s all due to a faster-than-expected start to the year.

Next year will be even worse, with moderate growth of 2.3%, six-tenths of a point lower than previously projected.

It’s not until 2012 that the bank sees the economy gathering steam, but at 2.6%, that’s still far below Canada ’s historic growth levels during expansionary periods.

More surprising was how far the bank’s senior officers set back the time frame for the economy to return to normal, or full-capacity -- to the end of 2012 from the previously thought end of 2011.

“This more modest growth profile reflects a more gradual global recovery and a more subdued profile for household spending,” they wrote.

The bank said with household debt so high, it expects Canadians will spend less on consumer goods and on homes, meaning the housing market is in for a protracted cooling-off period.

Given that Ottawa is phasing out fiscal stimulus in March and consumers don’t have the means to keep spending, the Canadian economy will need to depend on exports and business investments, two sectors that have been extremely weak over the past few years.

It warned that exports will be sensitive to currency movements, a reference to efforts by the U.S. to devalue their dollar and corresponding strength of the loonie.

For the rest of the world, the coming fight over currency exchange rates -- largely between China and the U.S. -- and unresolved global imbalances will result in a more “protracted and difficult recovery,” the bank said.

Currency manipulation has emerged as the most contentious issue at the upcoming G20 finance ministers meeting later this week and leaders summit in November, both in Korea, with the potential to split the group between advanced and emerging nations.

The U.S. recovery will be particularly weak, it noted, with the corresponding drag on Canadian exports south of the border.

Even growth rates in emerging economies are expected to ease, the bank wrote, as fiscal and monetary policies are tightened.

As for prices, the bank’s key focus, its best guess is that both total and underlying inflation won’t reach the bank’s 2% target until the end of 2012.